Metro Volume and Pricing
There were five reportable retail transactions in the second quarter of 2012, Reis reports.* The five sales generated a transaction volume of $29.1 million at a mean price of $296 psf. Two major sales reported in 2012 are the March sale of the Rexel retail property, in Fairfax, at 31,245 square feet, for $6.5 million ($205 psf). Also in March, Spectrum Partners LLC sold the 163,920-square-foot Westgate Plaza Shopping Center for $33.8 million ($206 psf), as noted in the previous Observer.
The Prince William County submarket led the way in transaction volume at $71 million in the second quarter. This submarket also led in total square feet sold, at 341,534. The price per square foot was $207, but the submarket with that highest measurement was SE Fairfax County, at $401 psf, followed by Arlington/Alexandria, at $354 psf, Suburban Fairfax County, at $343 psf, then Prince William.
Cap Rate Comparisons and Forecasts
The five sale recorded for the second quarter were not of the properties covered by Reis, as they consisted of service stations and other retail entities that do not generate the necessary data for transaction analysis. For the first quarter, the mean cap rate for four sales was 9.4%, and the 12 month rolling cap rate was 7.0%. Reis forecasts the 12 month rolling cap rate to finish 2012 at 7.2%, after which a gradual decline to 6.7% by 2016 is forecast.