Q2 2012 Dayton, Ohio Retail Market Trends

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Q2 2012 Dayton, Ohio Retail Market Trends

The Dayton community-neighborhood shopping center sector cannot seem to get an edge in occupancy. Second quarter vacancy is reported at 16.9%, up 30 basis points for the quarter but down 20 year-over-year. First Glance data from Reis indicate a third quarter vacancy rate of 16.4%. Power Center vacancy is reported at 5.8%, unchanged year-over-year. Vacancy finished 2010 at 16.8%, and 2011 at 17.1%. Whatever the quarterly fluctuations; this market cannot seem to pull ahead of itself, no doubt due to the lack of demand. From 2002 to 2011, net absorption totaled negative 377,000 square feet, or negative 37,700 on average. This is a notable statistic even in a small (16.7 million square feet) market like Dayton’s. New construction during that time span added 906,000 square feet. Some developer caution may have been advisable, but there is not much retail building here. No community-neighborhood space completed here in 2008, 34,000 square feet completed in 2009, none in 2010 or 2011, and none is forecast to complete in 2012. For all that, net absorption was negative 52,000 square feet in 2011, positive 80,000 square feet in the first quarter, and negative again (41,000 square feet) for the second quarter of 2012. Reis estimates demand will not reach 100,000 square feet this year; vacancy is forecast to finish 2012 at 16.6%, followed by gradual annual declines.

Reis reports average asking and effective rents of $10.67 psf and $8.80 psf, up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, over the quarter, and down 0.2% and 0.1% over 12 months. First Glance data from Reis give a third quarter asking rent of $10.65 psf. Power Center rents are reported at $14.35 psf, down 1.1% year-over-year. This is a poor market for retail rents, effective rents were mostly in the $9.00 psf range for the 2000’s. Annual increases for asking and effective rents that break the 2.0% mark are not expected until the outlying years of the Reis forecast period.

In the first half of 2012, Cassidy Turley reports Roses Stores opened a 42,000-square-foot location in the Northwest Plaza in Trotwood. In the Fairfield Commons/Beavercreek submarket, HomeGoods opened a 28,786-square-foot store in the Beavercreek Plaza. Family Dollar Stores also opened two new locations in Huber Heights and West Dayton.